Markets we trade

Vertex Point Capital | Prediction Market Intelligence

Evolving markets.
Mispriced outcomes.
Proprietary technology
to capture them.

Vertex Point Capital applies proprietary technology and quantitative research to trade event-driven markets across weather, politics, sports, digital assets, and macroeconomics.

Why Vertex Point

An early, inefficient market. The technology to capitalize on it. The discipline to manage the risk.

Who we are

A firm built for a new kind of market

Our executive team has spent decades founding and scaling businesses in alternative investments. Our global research and quant development team brings backgrounds in mathematics, quantum physics and engineering to markets that didn’t exist five years ago. Together, we’re building the institutional standard for prediction market trading.

Meet the team

What we do

Every contract is a question with a deadline.

01

Research

Model: 64%

We turn a question about the world into a model of its probability, grounded in the data the contract settles on.

02

Signal

Our model: 64% chance = worth 64¢ Market selling it at 52¢ 64¢ − 52¢ = 12¢ edge

Every contract pays $1 if the event happens and nothing if it doesn't, so its price is a probability: 64¢ means a 64% chance. When our model says 64% and the market sells at 52¢, we're buying something worth 64¢ for 52¢: a 12¢ edge per contract. We trade only when that gap is bigger than the cost of being wrong.

03

Execution

Spectra™ Venue Venue Venue Settled

Spectra™ sizes, routes and monitors each position across venues, through to settlement.

Weather

Temperature, precipitation and storm contracts.

High above 90°F?41¢

Politics

Elections, legislation and appointments.

Bill passes Senate?63¢

Sports

Game, season and player outcomes.

Home team wins?55¢

Crypto

Price-range and event contracts on digital assets.

BTC above target?28¢

Economics

Inflation, rates, jobs and other releases.

Fed cuts in March?72¢

Example contracts and prices are illustrative.

Technology

Built on Spectra™

Spectra™ is Vertex Point's proprietary platform for taking a research idea to a live, risk-managed position quickly, across every venue Vertex Point trades.

See how Spectra™ works

Research

Realized variance in prediction markets

How much a yes-or-no contract has to move before it settles, explained from scratch and measured on Kalshi.

Read the piece

Careers

Build the edge in a market that’s just beginning.

We hire traders, researchers and quant developers who want hard problems, real ownership and a team that challenges every idea. Good work goes live fast on Spectra™.

View open roles

Technology

Spectra™

From research idea to live position, on every venue traded.

Prediction markets move fast and settle on hard deadlines. Spectra™ is the single proprietary platform behind every trade we make. Researchers, traders and engineers use it to validate an idea against real settlement data, take it live across venues, and control its risk until the contract resolves.

What it does

Four capabilities

From question to position

Six steps, one system

01

Frame the question

Define the contract, its settlement source and its deadline.

02

Gather the data

Pull the inputs that bear on the outcome, cleaned and timestamped.

03

Model the probability

Estimate the chance of each outcome and how confident we are.

04

Size the position

Compare to market prices and size against limits and fees.

05

Execute

Route orders across venues and monitor fills in real time.

06

Settle and review

Reconcile at resolution and score the forecast against the result.

Step 03 is powered by AMIE, Vertex Point’s proprietary modelling engine.

The team behind Spectra™

Built by engineers who have done this before.

Spectra™ was built by a team of engineers who come from some of the top shops in the trading world: proprietary trading firms, market makers, quantitative trading desks and exchanges. They have stood up trading and technology operations from the ground up, and run them across the United States, Europe and Asia.

At Vertex Point, they brought that experience to a market that had never had it, and moved fast. Rather than adapting tools built for equities or futures, the team designed Spectra™ from first principles for prediction markets: contracts that settle on real-world outcomes, venues with their own rules and fees, and deadlines that never move. The result is one proprietary platform that covers the full life of a trade.

Market dataResearchRiskExecutionSettlement

Experience the team brings

  • Market structure
  • Low-latency execution
  • Market data
  • Risk
  • Research infrastructure
  • Compliance

Build the systems that trade markets on everything.

See engineering roles

Charlotte, North Carolina

Team

A global market.
A global team.

Global quant research, trading and development

One desk, many time zones.

Supported by researchers, traders and engineers in the United States, Europe and Asia. We work as one team across every vertical we trade, because markets open somewhere around the clock.

Quantitative research

Turning questions about the world into calibrated probabilities.

  • Forecast models
  • Signal data
  • Calibration and scoring
  • Vertical specialists

Risk and execution

Taking strategies live across venues, inside clear risk limits.

  • Position limits and exposure
  • Cross-venue execution
  • Order routing and fills
  • Settlement and reconciliation

Development

Building and running Spectra™ and everything it connects to.

  • Spectra™ platform
  • Venue integrations
  • Data pipelines
  • Infrastructure and monitoring

Every model I build gets graded by the real world, usually within days. That feedback loop is addictive, and it makes you a much sharper researcher.

Quantitative researcher

There’s no off-the-shelf stack for prediction markets, so we build it. You can ship something and watch it trade live within days.

Quantitative developer, Spectra™

Work on markets on everything.

Explore careers

Research

Research

Studies and notes from the markets we trade.

October 2026 · Market structure

Realized variance in prediction markets

What variance is, why a yes-or-no contract has to move a predictable amount before it settles, and how much Kalshi prices moved from July to September 2026.

Read the piece

What to expect

What we'll publish.

01

Market structure

How event contracts behave around news, liquidity and settlement.

02

Methods

How we build forecasts, test them and score ourselves against real outcomes.

03

Research notes

Short observations from weather, politics, sports, digital assets and macroeconomics.

04

Conversations

Discussions with our team about the questions they're working on.

Careers

New market.
Unsolved problems.
A team that solves them together.

Prediction markets are new, fast-moving and largely unsolved. Join a small team of researchers, traders and engineers who work side by side to find the edge first, where every idea gets challenged, every forecast gets scored, and the best work goes live.

See open roles

Who we're looking for

The brightest minds in the world, for the newest market in it.

We're searching globally for people with a real passion for prediction markets: researchers, traders and engineers who think in probabilities and want to build the edge in a market that's still being defined.

01

We move fast

Ideas go from research to live markets in days, not quarters. Small teams, short feedback loops, no committees.

02

We hire smart

We care how you think more than where you studied: sharp reasoning, rigorous testing and honest scoring of your own calls.

03

Tier-1 prop standards

Built by people from top-tier proprietary trading firms, with the tooling, speed and risk discipline to match.

Three ways in

Tracks

Quantitative researchers

Build forecast models for a vertical, test them against real settlements, and publish what you learn.

What we look for

  • Strong foundation in probability, statistics and mathematical modelling
  • You think in calibrated probabilities, not hunches, and can explain why your number is right
  • Experience building and backtesting forecast or pricing models on real data
  • Fluent in Python; comfortable with time series, simulation and machine learning
  • Curiosity about at least one of our verticals: weather, politics, sports, crypto or economics

Quantitative developers

Build Spectra™: venue connections, data pipelines, execution and the tools researchers use every day.

What we look for

  • Production experience building low-latency or high-reliability systems
  • Strong in Python and Rust
  • Experience with exchange APIs, order books, WebSockets or market-data feeds
  • Care for testing, monitoring and clean deployment, because code here trades real money
  • You like owning a system end to end, from design to running it live

Data science

Turn raw data into quantitative strategies. Build the datasets, features and models behind every signal we trade, and see your work go live on Spectra™.

What we look for

  • Statistics, machine learning or applied mathematics, applied to real problems
  • Strong Python and SQL, comfortable with large, messy and fast-moving datasets
  • You can turn raw data into features that actually predict outcomes, and prove it
  • Experience in trading, sports analytics, forecasting or another data-heavy field
  • Clear communication: you can show researchers and traders what the data says

What we look for

Four things, every hire.

Credentials help, but we hire on how you think. These are what every interview tests.

  1. 01

    Calibration

    Your 70% calls come true about 70% of the time, and you know when you don't know.

  2. 02

    Rigour

    You check the settlement rules, the data and your own code before you trust a result.

  3. 03

    Speed with care

    Markets resolve on deadlines. You ship, then improve.

  4. 04

    Candour

    You say what you think, change your mind on evidence, and write it down.

Open roles

Join the team

Don't see your role?

Send an open application and tell us which track fits.

Los Angeles, CA · Headquarters

Life at VPC

Real impact. Real capabilities.

Ownership

You lead projects end to end, from idea to live trading.

Two offices, one desk

Los Angeles, CA and Charlotte, NC, with teammates around the world.

Legal

Legal information

Last updated October 22, 2026.

Terms of Use

Agreement. These Terms govern your use of this website (the "Site"), operated by Vertex Point Capital, LLC ("Vertex Point," "we," "us"). By using the Site, you agree to these Terms. If you do not agree, please do not use the Site.

Information only, not advice. The Site provides general information about Vertex Point and its work. Nothing on the Site is investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, contract or other instrument.

No offer. Nothing on the Site is an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, interest or investment product. Vertex Point trades only its own capital and does not manage or solicit outside capital.

Our content and marks. The Site and its content belong to Vertex Point or its licensors and are protected by intellectual property laws. Vertex Point, the Vertex Point logo and Spectra™ are trademarks of Vertex Point Capital, LLC. You may view and print pages for personal, non-commercial use. You may not copy, modify, distribute, scrape or create derivative works without our written permission.

Illustrative content. Charts, simulated prices, the event-market ticker, example contracts and other illustrations on the Site are for illustration only. They are not actual or hypothetical performance of any strategy or account.

Third-party data and links. The Site may display market data from public third-party sources, which may be delayed, incomplete or inaccurate, and may link to third-party websites. We do not control, endorse or guarantee third-party content and are not responsible for it.

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Limitation of liability. To the fullest extent permitted by law, Vertex Point and its affiliates, officers, employees and agents will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential or punitive damages, or any loss of profits, data or goodwill, arising from your use of, or inability to use, the Site.

Changes. We may update these Terms at any time by posting a revised version with a new date. Continued use of the Site means you accept the changes.

Contact. Questions about these Terms: contact@vertexpointcap.com.

Privacy Policy

Who this notice applies to. This notice explains how Vertex Point Capital, LLC ("Vertex Point," "we") handles personal information collected through this website (the "Site").

What information we collect. Depending on how you use the Site, we may collect:

  • Contact details, such as your name, email address, phone number and firm, when you send an inquiry or email us.
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We do not ask for sensitive information through the Site, such as government ID numbers, financial account details or demographic information. Please do not send it.

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How we protect information. We use administrative, technical and physical safeguards designed to protect information against unauthorized access, loss or misuse. No system is completely secure.

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Updates. We may update this notice and will post the new version here with a revised date.

Contact us. contact@vertexpointcap.com

Important Disclosures

About Vertex Point Capital. Vertex Point Capital LLC ("Vertex Point" or the "Firm") is a proprietary quantitative trading firm. The Firm trades exclusively with its own internal capital in prediction, event and related markets. Vertex Point does not manage assets on behalf of third parties, does not accept outside investors, and does not provide investment advisory, brokerage or financial planning services to the public.

No offer or solicitation. Nothing on this website constitutes, or should be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, fund interest, investment product or trading service. No information on this site is intended to form the basis of any investment decision. The Firm is not registered as an investment adviser, commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor, and nothing herein should be read as implying otherwise.

Informational content. Discussion of prediction markets, event contracts, trading strategies, technology or market structure on this website reflects the Firm's general views and experience. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only, is not personalized advice, and may not be relied upon as such. Trading in prediction and event markets involves substantial risk, including the risk of total loss, and past performance of any strategy is not indicative of future results. Vertex Point makes no representation regarding the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site and undertakes no obligation to update it.

Recruiting. References to open roles, hiring or team expansion relate solely to employment and contractor opportunities with the Firm. Expressions of interest in joining Vertex Point are not investment inquiries and will not be treated as such. Submitting an application does not create any relationship with the Firm beyond the evaluation of that application.

Third-party venues. Vertex Point trades on regulated exchanges and other venues as a participant. References to any exchange, platform or market do not imply endorsement by, affiliation with, or sponsorship from that venue.

Contact. Questions regarding these disclosures may be directed to legal@vertexpointcap.com.